Proposed Abstract Title

Enhancing Community Resilience Through Effective Sea Level Rise Risk Communication

Type of Presentation

Oral

Session Title

Integrating Science with Landowner Outreach to Increase Coastal Resiliency

Location

2016SSEC

Description

Presenting sea level rise information to decision makers and communities in ways that are accurate, understandable, and useful has always been challenging. Visual depiction of annual coastal flood risk probabilities that incorporates sea level rise has been an elusive goal until now. The presentation presents an approach developed as part of the North Olympic Peninsula Climate Adaptation project that builds fully probabilistic relative sea level and extreme coastal flood projections for the region.

The projections rely on previously published data and supplemental information from Kopp and others (2014), but incorporate higher resolution local information on factors that can alter relative sea level patterns. The coastal flood risk is incorporated using publically available water level data fit to a Generalized Extreme Value Distribution, and incorporated into the sea level rise projections using a Monte Carlo approach. The presentation will cover the process for developing the probabilities along with the GIS-based maps created to visually communicate those probabilities for selected focus areas on the North Olympic Peninsula.

This approach takes into account locally-varying factors that can lead to differences in anticipated community impacts due to sea level rise and/or coastal flooding. We will also assess the efficacy of this approach, relative to a more traditional scenario-based sea level planning approach, based on presenting preliminary data and maps to communities on the Strait of Juan de Fuca in Washington State. Overall, it provides communities with more flexibility and increased understanding relative to scenario-based sea level rise planning approaches

Comments

Full project report available at: http://www.noprcd.org/#!about2/c1yuo

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Enhancing Community Resilience Through Effective Sea Level Rise Risk Communication

2016SSEC

Presenting sea level rise information to decision makers and communities in ways that are accurate, understandable, and useful has always been challenging. Visual depiction of annual coastal flood risk probabilities that incorporates sea level rise has been an elusive goal until now. The presentation presents an approach developed as part of the North Olympic Peninsula Climate Adaptation project that builds fully probabilistic relative sea level and extreme coastal flood projections for the region.

The projections rely on previously published data and supplemental information from Kopp and others (2014), but incorporate higher resolution local information on factors that can alter relative sea level patterns. The coastal flood risk is incorporated using publically available water level data fit to a Generalized Extreme Value Distribution, and incorporated into the sea level rise projections using a Monte Carlo approach. The presentation will cover the process for developing the probabilities along with the GIS-based maps created to visually communicate those probabilities for selected focus areas on the North Olympic Peninsula.

This approach takes into account locally-varying factors that can lead to differences in anticipated community impacts due to sea level rise and/or coastal flooding. We will also assess the efficacy of this approach, relative to a more traditional scenario-based sea level planning approach, based on presenting preliminary data and maps to communities on the Strait of Juan de Fuca in Washington State. Overall, it provides communities with more flexibility and increased understanding relative to scenario-based sea level rise planning approaches