Presentation Title

Effects of changes in biotoxin closures on recreational shellfish harvest demand

Session Title

The Value of Recreation and Community in the Salish Sea

Conference Track

People

Conference Name

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2016 : Vancouver, B.C.)

Contributing Repository

Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Type of Presentation

Oral

Abstract

Future predictions of environmental conditions in Puget Sound exhibit an increased frequency and temporal extent of paralytic shellfish toxin closures. These predictions, generated using experimentally-derived growth responses of the common toxin-producing Alexandrium together with simulations of climate and local hydrology, depict a scenario in which the number of days favorable to bloom development is increased by 30 by the year 2050. We quantify the lost consumer surplus that would result from this reduced recreational opportunity, as impacted by future climate change. Our economic model is estimated using a recent contingent behavior survey of recreational shellfish harvesters in Puget Sound. Specifically, we estimate an incomplete count model demand system for recreational shellfish harvest trips along with the demand for close substitute trips.

Rights

This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Language

English

Format

application/pdf

Type

Text

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Effects of changes in biotoxin closures on recreational shellfish harvest demand

2016SSEC

Future predictions of environmental conditions in Puget Sound exhibit an increased frequency and temporal extent of paralytic shellfish toxin closures. These predictions, generated using experimentally-derived growth responses of the common toxin-producing Alexandrium together with simulations of climate and local hydrology, depict a scenario in which the number of days favorable to bloom development is increased by 30 by the year 2050. We quantify the lost consumer surplus that would result from this reduced recreational opportunity, as impacted by future climate change. Our economic model is estimated using a recent contingent behavior survey of recreational shellfish harvesters in Puget Sound. Specifically, we estimate an incomplete count model demand system for recreational shellfish harvest trips along with the demand for close substitute trips.