Presentation Abstract

The increased frequency, duration and geographic extent of toxic Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound presents new challenges of how to best allocate resources available for toxin monitoring of shellfish in order to protect human health. Monitoring plans are typically based on shellfish toxicity patterns from the recent past; however, the increasing trend in Alexandrium blooms means that managers are chasing a moving target. With projected future changes in global and regional climate, the risk of toxic Alexandrium blooms is expected to increase. Through funding from NOAA’s Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications Program, we are developing a harmful algal bloom (HAB) risk index that will provide another source of information to the Washington State Department of Health (WDOH) and local health jurisdictions for allocating paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) monitoring resources in the Sound. The HAB risk index is being developed from existing modeling capabilities and six years of year-round PSP toxin data in mussels collected by the WDOH. Climate/meteorological data produced by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, was used to drive the Puget Sound hydrologic and coastal hydrodynamic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Temperature and salinity output from the modeling framework provided input to an Alexandrium growth rate model developed by the Puget Sound Alexandrium Harmful Algal Bloom (PS-AHAB) program. Output from these models was calculated for spatially-explicit WDOH biotoxin closure zones. Statistical correlations between model outputs were examined for trends related to initiation of biotoxin zone closures and changes in shellfish PSP toxin levels. These relationships are being used to develop a risk index that can inform decisions about resource allocation for PSP monitoring in the future at the county, regional, and state level. Changes in risk factors based on a future climate scenario are also being examined. Results of the modeled data and development of the risk index will be presented at the conference.

Session Title

Harmful Phytoplankton in the Salish Sea: Part I

Keywords

Harmful algae, Alexandrium, PSP

Conference Track

SSE5: Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Research

Conference Name

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (Seattle, WA : 2018)

Document Type

Event

SSEC Identifier

SSE5-542

Start Date

4-4-2018 1:30 PM

End Date

4-4-2018 1:45 PM

Type of Presentation

Oral

Contributing Repository

Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Geographic Coverage

Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)

Rights

This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Type

text

Language

English

Format

application/pdf

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Apr 4th, 1:30 PM Apr 4th, 1:45 PM

Assessing harmful algal bloom risk in Puget Sound: a coupled modeling-data analysis approach

The increased frequency, duration and geographic extent of toxic Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound presents new challenges of how to best allocate resources available for toxin monitoring of shellfish in order to protect human health. Monitoring plans are typically based on shellfish toxicity patterns from the recent past; however, the increasing trend in Alexandrium blooms means that managers are chasing a moving target. With projected future changes in global and regional climate, the risk of toxic Alexandrium blooms is expected to increase. Through funding from NOAA’s Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications Program, we are developing a harmful algal bloom (HAB) risk index that will provide another source of information to the Washington State Department of Health (WDOH) and local health jurisdictions for allocating paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) monitoring resources in the Sound. The HAB risk index is being developed from existing modeling capabilities and six years of year-round PSP toxin data in mussels collected by the WDOH. Climate/meteorological data produced by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, was used to drive the Puget Sound hydrologic and coastal hydrodynamic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Temperature and salinity output from the modeling framework provided input to an Alexandrium growth rate model developed by the Puget Sound Alexandrium Harmful Algal Bloom (PS-AHAB) program. Output from these models was calculated for spatially-explicit WDOH biotoxin closure zones. Statistical correlations between model outputs were examined for trends related to initiation of biotoxin zone closures and changes in shellfish PSP toxin levels. These relationships are being used to develop a risk index that can inform decisions about resource allocation for PSP monitoring in the future at the county, regional, and state level. Changes in risk factors based on a future climate scenario are also being examined. Results of the modeled data and development of the risk index will be presented at the conference.