Development of an Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model focused on survival of juvenile salmon in Puget Sound
Presentation Abstract
We have developed an end-to-end ecosystem model of Puget Sound built in the Atlantis ecosystem modelling framework. This model will support the Salish Sea Marine Survival Project by evaluating hypotheses related to the decline in early marine survival of Chinook and coho salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and O. kisutch ). The model can also serve as a strategic tool for ecosystem-based management of Puget Sound, with potential to inform the “vital signs” of the system’s health that are tracked by the Puget Sound Partnership. The model represents Puget Sound in a three-dimensional, spatially-explicit domain that includes physical oceanography and simulates trophic dynamics, fisheries, nutrient dynamics, microbial cycles, and habitat. The Atlantis model is dynamic and is initialized to represent recent conditions (c. 2011). We simulate food web dynamics using 74 functional groups, including 21 salmon groups. Model development required extensive synthesis of local data contributed by state, federal, and tribal agencies, NGOs, universities and others. The hypotheses to be tested are: 1). How do short- and long-term changes in circulation, water chemistry, and primary productivity affect salmon? Have these bottom-up processes led to shifts in prey availability, timing, and quality? 2). How sensitive are the bottom-up processes relevant to salmon to anthropogenic loading of nutrients and contaminants? 3). To what extent have competition (e.g. with pink salmon O. gorbuscha) and predation (e.g. by pinnipeds) led to declines in survival of juvenile salmon? We will apply the model to identify the natural and anthropogenic impacts that most strongly affect salmon survival and broader ecosystem health, and to ask whether stringent management actions to mitigate those impacts imply tradeoffs in other sectors or conservation objectives.
Development of an Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model focused on survival of juvenile salmon in Puget Sound
We have developed an end-to-end ecosystem model of Puget Sound built in the Atlantis ecosystem modelling framework. This model will support the Salish Sea Marine Survival Project by evaluating hypotheses related to the decline in early marine survival of Chinook and coho salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and O. kisutch ). The model can also serve as a strategic tool for ecosystem-based management of Puget Sound, with potential to inform the “vital signs” of the system’s health that are tracked by the Puget Sound Partnership. The model represents Puget Sound in a three-dimensional, spatially-explicit domain that includes physical oceanography and simulates trophic dynamics, fisheries, nutrient dynamics, microbial cycles, and habitat. The Atlantis model is dynamic and is initialized to represent recent conditions (c. 2011). We simulate food web dynamics using 74 functional groups, including 21 salmon groups. Model development required extensive synthesis of local data contributed by state, federal, and tribal agencies, NGOs, universities and others. The hypotheses to be tested are: 1). How do short- and long-term changes in circulation, water chemistry, and primary productivity affect salmon? Have these bottom-up processes led to shifts in prey availability, timing, and quality? 2). How sensitive are the bottom-up processes relevant to salmon to anthropogenic loading of nutrients and contaminants? 3). To what extent have competition (e.g. with pink salmon O. gorbuscha) and predation (e.g. by pinnipeds) led to declines in survival of juvenile salmon? We will apply the model to identify the natural and anthropogenic impacts that most strongly affect salmon survival and broader ecosystem health, and to ask whether stringent management actions to mitigate those impacts imply tradeoffs in other sectors or conservation objectives.
