Event Title

Monitoring and modeling riverine thermal regimes in a changing climate: implications for native and non-native fishes

Presentation Abstract

Thermal landscapes include minute-to-minute fluctuations and meter-to-meter diversity; both of which are likely to shift with future changes in climate. We have designed a water temperature monitoring network on the Snoqualmie River with 40+ stations recording water temperature every 30-min and we now have 6 full years of data. Using spatial stream network models, these data are providing visualizations of how water temperatures fluctuate over time and space. By modeling facets of the thermal regime of importance to particular species and life-stages, we can map and estimate where and when suitable habitat conditions occur. Layering individual-based models of native and non-native species as well as forecasted future water temperature regimes, we can estimate how species of concern may respond to these future conditions. The record-breaking droughts and high temperatures in 2015 across the Pacific Northwest of the United States, USA also provide a window into what future thermal landscapes could look like. We observed drier and warmer conditions in 2015 as compared to what has been observed since 1960; however, patterns were neither consistent over the year nor on the network. Some sites showed dramatic increases in temperature while other sites displayed air and water temperature patterns that were not particularly different from typical years. We compared the distribution of thermally-suitable habitats in 2015 to that of previous, more typical years and conclude that if we observe years like 2015 more frequently in the future, we can expect shifts in the thermal landscape to be less favorable to native, cool-water fishes such as Chinook salmon and Bull trout while they benefit generalist non-native species such as large-mouth bass. Using the monitoring data collected so far, we can estimate where those changes are most likely to occur on the network.

Session Title

Transcending the Land-Ocean Boundary. Responses of Ecosystem Process to Climate and Human Impacts Across a Wide Spectrum of Processes, Habitats and Space

Conference Track

SSE16: Long-Term Monitoring of Salish Sea Ecosystems

Conference Name

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (Seattle, WA : 2018)

Document Type

Event

SSEC Identifier

SSE16-293

Start Date

5-4-2018 2:00 PM

End Date

5-4-2018 2:15 PM

Type of Presentation

Oral

Contributing Repository

Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Geographic Coverage

Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)

Rights

This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Type

text

Language

English

Format

application/pdf

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Apr 5th, 2:00 PM Apr 5th, 2:15 PM

Monitoring and modeling riverine thermal regimes in a changing climate: implications for native and non-native fishes

Thermal landscapes include minute-to-minute fluctuations and meter-to-meter diversity; both of which are likely to shift with future changes in climate. We have designed a water temperature monitoring network on the Snoqualmie River with 40+ stations recording water temperature every 30-min and we now have 6 full years of data. Using spatial stream network models, these data are providing visualizations of how water temperatures fluctuate over time and space. By modeling facets of the thermal regime of importance to particular species and life-stages, we can map and estimate where and when suitable habitat conditions occur. Layering individual-based models of native and non-native species as well as forecasted future water temperature regimes, we can estimate how species of concern may respond to these future conditions. The record-breaking droughts and high temperatures in 2015 across the Pacific Northwest of the United States, USA also provide a window into what future thermal landscapes could look like. We observed drier and warmer conditions in 2015 as compared to what has been observed since 1960; however, patterns were neither consistent over the year nor on the network. Some sites showed dramatic increases in temperature while other sites displayed air and water temperature patterns that were not particularly different from typical years. We compared the distribution of thermally-suitable habitats in 2015 to that of previous, more typical years and conclude that if we observe years like 2015 more frequently in the future, we can expect shifts in the thermal landscape to be less favorable to native, cool-water fishes such as Chinook salmon and Bull trout while they benefit generalist non-native species such as large-mouth bass. Using the monitoring data collected so far, we can estimate where those changes are most likely to occur on the network.