Event Title

Puget Sound coastal storm modeling system (PS-CoSMoS) to inform coastal change planning

Presentation Abstract

The Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) is a standardized, regional hydrodynamic model of the Salish Sea that predicts coastal flooding and shoreline impacts through the year 2150 for climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 at scales important for planning (~100 m alongshore). It builds from the CoSMoS model framework, which has been implemented across California and San Francisco Bay. It incorporates the principal physics associated with coupled coastal and stream flooding and can include sediment transport. Predictions of flood extent, frequency, duration, current velocities, wave heights, and associated impacts (e.g. socio-economic consequences) are provided to the public through interactive web tools. PS-CoSMoS will incorporate a new high-resolution (1-m) digital elevation model of the Salish Sea and probabilistic sea-level rise estimates formulated by the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. Initially, 40 combinations of projected sea-level rise and future storms (e.g. the 100-, 50-, 10-yr events), identified within the CMIP5 global climate model ensembles, are being propagated through coupled Delft3D-FM, SWAN, and XBeach models to evaluate expected changes in the magnitude and frequency of coastal impacts. Partner and stakeholder workshops continue to identify metrics and model outputs needed for salmon ecosystem recovery, infrastructure management, and adaptation planning that will guide additional modeling approaches. Initial results indicate that across extensive areas of Puget Sound, wave energy reaching the shoreline will increase 5-25% and the frequency of today’s 100-yr extreme coastal storm flood and high water events will recur as <5-year events with just 1 foot of sea-level rise. This presentation will summarize the status of PS-CoSMoS, initial applications to assess habitat vulnerability and restoration opportunities, agricultural and storm-water infrastructure, and adaptive climate change planning to encourage discussion of next steps.

Session Title

Integrated Coastal Climate Change Modeling for Salish Sea Planning: Part I

Conference Track

SSE5: Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Research

Conference Name

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (Seattle, WA : 2018)

Document Type

Event

SSEC Identifier

SSE5-212

Start Date

6-4-2018 9:15 AM

End Date

6-4-2018 9:30 AM

Type of Presentation

Oral

Contributing Repository

Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Geographic Coverage

Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)

Rights

This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Type

text

Language

English

Format

application/pdf

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Apr 6th, 9:15 AM Apr 6th, 9:30 AM

Puget Sound coastal storm modeling system (PS-CoSMoS) to inform coastal change planning

The Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) is a standardized, regional hydrodynamic model of the Salish Sea that predicts coastal flooding and shoreline impacts through the year 2150 for climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 at scales important for planning (~100 m alongshore). It builds from the CoSMoS model framework, which has been implemented across California and San Francisco Bay. It incorporates the principal physics associated with coupled coastal and stream flooding and can include sediment transport. Predictions of flood extent, frequency, duration, current velocities, wave heights, and associated impacts (e.g. socio-economic consequences) are provided to the public through interactive web tools. PS-CoSMoS will incorporate a new high-resolution (1-m) digital elevation model of the Salish Sea and probabilistic sea-level rise estimates formulated by the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. Initially, 40 combinations of projected sea-level rise and future storms (e.g. the 100-, 50-, 10-yr events), identified within the CMIP5 global climate model ensembles, are being propagated through coupled Delft3D-FM, SWAN, and XBeach models to evaluate expected changes in the magnitude and frequency of coastal impacts. Partner and stakeholder workshops continue to identify metrics and model outputs needed for salmon ecosystem recovery, infrastructure management, and adaptation planning that will guide additional modeling approaches. Initial results indicate that across extensive areas of Puget Sound, wave energy reaching the shoreline will increase 5-25% and the frequency of today’s 100-yr extreme coastal storm flood and high water events will recur as <5-year events with just 1 foot of sea-level rise. This presentation will summarize the status of PS-CoSMoS, initial applications to assess habitat vulnerability and restoration opportunities, agricultural and storm-water infrastructure, and adaptive climate change planning to encourage discussion of next steps.