Presentation Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) due to anthropogenic global warming will affect coastlines throughout the Salish Sea, but will have particular impacts in places such as estuaries and cities, where there is significant built environment close to sea level (e.g., Tacoma Tideflats/Port of Tacoma). Projections for SLR in the Salish Sea range from 6” to 6’ by the year 2100, with a mean projection of 2’. This uncertainty is challenging for planners and managers who wish to incorporate SLR projections into their planning processes. A team of researchers at the UW Climate Impacts Group (CIG), Washington Sea Grant (WSG), University of Oregon, and USGS are developing a new set of probabilistic SLR projections for as part of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project (WCRP). However, the WCRP project does not include plans to develop maps of changing sea level for the state. In response to this, EPA has provided funding (through the National Estuarine Program, NEP) to develop guidelines so that GIS staff members can produce maps for their areas of focus. In addition to the large range among projections, mapping sea level is challenging because of different reference datasets for sea level and land elevation, biases in elevation surveys, and other technical issues. The purpose of this work is to provide guidance for addressing these issues when possible, and awareness of potential sources of error where these currently cannot be addressed. We are working with two local partners as pilot projects for this mapping: the City of Tacoma and Island County. The goal of this work is to build and support local capacity for using and applying sea level rise projections -- both within the case study communities and beyond.

Session Title

Estuarine Climate Change Adaptation

Keywords

Cartography, Sea level rise

Conference Track

SSE5: Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Research

Conference Name

Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (Seattle, WA : 2018)

Document Type

Event

SSEC Identifier

SSE5-551

Start Date

6-4-2018 10:45 AM

End Date

6-4-2018 11:00 AM

Type of Presentation

Oral

Contributing Repository

Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Geographic Coverage

Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)

Rights

This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.

Type

text

Language

English

Format

application/pdf

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Apr 6th, 10:45 AM Apr 6th, 11:00 AM

Guidelines for mapping sea level rise and uncertainty

Sea level rise (SLR) due to anthropogenic global warming will affect coastlines throughout the Salish Sea, but will have particular impacts in places such as estuaries and cities, where there is significant built environment close to sea level (e.g., Tacoma Tideflats/Port of Tacoma). Projections for SLR in the Salish Sea range from 6” to 6’ by the year 2100, with a mean projection of 2’. This uncertainty is challenging for planners and managers who wish to incorporate SLR projections into their planning processes. A team of researchers at the UW Climate Impacts Group (CIG), Washington Sea Grant (WSG), University of Oregon, and USGS are developing a new set of probabilistic SLR projections for as part of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project (WCRP). However, the WCRP project does not include plans to develop maps of changing sea level for the state. In response to this, EPA has provided funding (through the National Estuarine Program, NEP) to develop guidelines so that GIS staff members can produce maps for their areas of focus. In addition to the large range among projections, mapping sea level is challenging because of different reference datasets for sea level and land elevation, biases in elevation surveys, and other technical issues. The purpose of this work is to provide guidance for addressing these issues when possible, and awareness of potential sources of error where these currently cannot be addressed. We are working with two local partners as pilot projects for this mapping: the City of Tacoma and Island County. The goal of this work is to build and support local capacity for using and applying sea level rise projections -- both within the case study communities and beyond.