Presentation Abstract
Climate change affects coastal and estuarine regions via a complex web of oceanic, atmospheric, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. This talk summarizes the state of our knowledge regarding the relative importance of these pathways for Puget Sound, drawing on recent climate-downscaling model studies and retrospective analyses of observations by a number of research groups. Riverflow in the Puget Sound basin is expected to shift significantly in timing, and hydrodynamic modeling suggests that this will have direct effects on the seasonality of water-column stratification in Puget Sound, and potentially on the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom. Contemporary projections of trends in upwelling-favorable winds are highly equivocal. A new regional model analysis suggests that the effects of even a substantial increase (20%) in upwelling on the Washington coast on nutrient and oxygen inputs in Puget Sound are likely to be at most comparable to the 50-year historical trend in sourcewater chemistry inherited from processes on the scale of the North Pacific. It may be many decades before long-term trends in ocean inputs exceed the range of natural decadal-scale variability, although some effects of climate change on Puget Sound--such as direct surface warming--will be felt much sooner.
Session Title
Session S-02A: Future Salish Sea Water Quality
Conference Track
Marine Water Quality
Conference Name
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2014 : Seattle, Wash.)
Document Type
Event
Start Date
30-4-2014 1:30 PM
End Date
30-4-2014 3:00 PM
Location
Room 615-616-617
Genre/Form
conference proceedings; presentations (communicative events)
Contributing Repository
Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Subjects – Topical (LCSH)
Climatic changes--Washington (State)--Puget Sound; Marine ecology--Washington (State)--Puget Sound; Coastal ecology--Washington (State)--Puget Sound; Water quality--Washington (State)--Puget Sound
Geographic Coverage
Puget Sound (Wash.)--Environmental conditions; Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)--Environmental conditions
Rights
This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Type
Text
Language
English
Format
application/pdf
Included in
Future climate impacts on Puget Sound oceanography: the North Pacific and hydrological context
Room 615-616-617
Climate change affects coastal and estuarine regions via a complex web of oceanic, atmospheric, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. This talk summarizes the state of our knowledge regarding the relative importance of these pathways for Puget Sound, drawing on recent climate-downscaling model studies and retrospective analyses of observations by a number of research groups. Riverflow in the Puget Sound basin is expected to shift significantly in timing, and hydrodynamic modeling suggests that this will have direct effects on the seasonality of water-column stratification in Puget Sound, and potentially on the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom. Contemporary projections of trends in upwelling-favorable winds are highly equivocal. A new regional model analysis suggests that the effects of even a substantial increase (20%) in upwelling on the Washington coast on nutrient and oxygen inputs in Puget Sound are likely to be at most comparable to the 50-year historical trend in sourcewater chemistry inherited from processes on the scale of the North Pacific. It may be many decades before long-term trends in ocean inputs exceed the range of natural decadal-scale variability, although some effects of climate change on Puget Sound--such as direct surface warming--will be felt much sooner.
