Presentation Abstract
The Department of Ecology and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory evaluated future dissolved oxygen scenarios within the Salish Sea using a circulation and water quality model of Puget Sound, the Strait of Georgia, and the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A recently published report summarizes relative contributions of human nutrient sources, the Pacific Ocean, and climate factors on dissolved oxygen both now and through 2070. Human nitrogen contributions from the U.S. and Canada to the Salish Sea have the greatest impacts on dissolved oxygen in portions of South and Central Puget Sound. Marine point sources cause greater impacts on oxygen than human influences on river inflows now and into the future. Most of the Salish Sea reflects a relatively low impact from human sources, although that will increase as loads increase. The Pacific Ocean strongly influences dissolved oxygen concentrations under both current and future conditions. If 50-year declining trends in North Pacific Ocean dissolved oxygen continue, Salish Sea dissolved oxygen would decline far more than from human nutrient loads. Climate change will alter the timing of freshwater flow reaching the Salish Sea, as provided by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. This would alter estuarine circulation patterns, potentially worsening impacts in some regions but lessening others. Future air temperature increases would further decrease dissolved oxygen, particularly in shallow inlets. This is the first assessment of how Salish Sea dissolved oxygen concentrations respond to population increases, ocean conditions, and climate change. Additional analyses are needed to link sediment-water interactions and increase scientific certainty.
Session Title
Session S-02A: Future Salish Sea Water Quality
Conference Track
Marine Water Quality
Conference Name
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2014 : Seattle, Wash.)
Document Type
Event
Start Date
30-4-2014 1:30 PM
End Date
30-4-2014 3:00 PM
Location
Room 615-616-617
Genre/Form
conference proceedings; presentations (communicative events)
Contributing Repository
Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Subjects – Topical (LCSH)
Nutrient pollution of water--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Ocean circulation--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Water--Dissolved oxygen--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Climatic changes--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)
Geographic Coverage
Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)
Rights
This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Type
Text
Language
English
Format
application/pdf
Included in
Relative influences of human nutrient sources, the Pacific Ocean, and climate change on Salish Sea dissolved oxygen through 2070
Room 615-616-617
The Department of Ecology and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory evaluated future dissolved oxygen scenarios within the Salish Sea using a circulation and water quality model of Puget Sound, the Strait of Georgia, and the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A recently published report summarizes relative contributions of human nutrient sources, the Pacific Ocean, and climate factors on dissolved oxygen both now and through 2070. Human nitrogen contributions from the U.S. and Canada to the Salish Sea have the greatest impacts on dissolved oxygen in portions of South and Central Puget Sound. Marine point sources cause greater impacts on oxygen than human influences on river inflows now and into the future. Most of the Salish Sea reflects a relatively low impact from human sources, although that will increase as loads increase. The Pacific Ocean strongly influences dissolved oxygen concentrations under both current and future conditions. If 50-year declining trends in North Pacific Ocean dissolved oxygen continue, Salish Sea dissolved oxygen would decline far more than from human nutrient loads. Climate change will alter the timing of freshwater flow reaching the Salish Sea, as provided by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group. This would alter estuarine circulation patterns, potentially worsening impacts in some regions but lessening others. Future air temperature increases would further decrease dissolved oxygen, particularly in shallow inlets. This is the first assessment of how Salish Sea dissolved oxygen concentrations respond to population increases, ocean conditions, and climate change. Additional analyses are needed to link sediment-water interactions and increase scientific certainty.
