Predicting the Effects of Sea Level Rise and Future Hydrology on Salinity Intrusion and Freshwater Export from the Skagit River Estuary
Presentation Abstract
Future climate simulations based on the IPCC A1b and B2 emissions scenarios downscaled to the Pacific Northwest have shown that hydrology of Skagit River, the largest source of freshwater to Puget Sound, Washington, will be affected. However, due to site specific complexity, there is considerable uncertainty about the extent and magnitude of resulting estuarine impacts such as upstream propagation of salinity. This is of concern not only from potential impacts to coastal fisheries, but also because higher salinity could affect drinking water and agricultural water supplies. Similarly there is interest in understanding the distribution and export of freshwater out of Skagit River estuary and the availability of brackish habitat. To characterize the hydrodynamic response in this highly diked and altered environment to climate change stressors, we developed a high resolution hydrodynamic model of the system. Skagit River estuary was simulated using the finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) and included connections to Padilla Bay to the north and Saratoga Passage to the south. The model was setup by refining the Skagit-Padilla Bay sub-domain within the greater Puget Sound Georgia Basin or Salish Sea model. Salish Sea will also be affected by sea level rise and future freshwater loads over a larger scale and corresponding effects on the Skagit Basin ocean boundaries are included. The simulated salinity intrusion and gradients from future scenarios are compared with existing baseline conditions. Potential large scale changes to the seasonal net transport through the basin, north through Swinomish Channel to Padilla Bay in the winter or to the South through Saratoga Passage during the summer were examined through a series of sensitivity tests
Session Title
Session S-07H: Assessing, Planning and Adapting to Climate Change Impacts in Skagit River Watershed
Conference Track
Shorelines
Conference Name
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2014 : Seattle, Wash.)
Document Type
Event
Start Date
1-5-2014 3:30 PM
End Date
1-5-2014 5:00 PM
Location
Room 607
Genre/Form
conference proceedings; presentations (communicative events)
Contributing Repository
Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Subjects – Topical (LCSH)
Sea level--Environmental aspects--Washington (State)--Skagit River Delta; Hydrology--Environmental aspects--Washington (State)--Puget Sound; Climatic changes--Washington (State)--Skagit River Delta; Saltwater encroachment--Washington (State)--Skagit River Delta
Geographic Coverage
Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Skagit River Delta (Wash.); Puget Sound (Wash.)
Rights
This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Type
Text
Language
English
Format
application/pdf
Predicting the Effects of Sea Level Rise and Future Hydrology on Salinity Intrusion and Freshwater Export from the Skagit River Estuary
Room 607
Future climate simulations based on the IPCC A1b and B2 emissions scenarios downscaled to the Pacific Northwest have shown that hydrology of Skagit River, the largest source of freshwater to Puget Sound, Washington, will be affected. However, due to site specific complexity, there is considerable uncertainty about the extent and magnitude of resulting estuarine impacts such as upstream propagation of salinity. This is of concern not only from potential impacts to coastal fisheries, but also because higher salinity could affect drinking water and agricultural water supplies. Similarly there is interest in understanding the distribution and export of freshwater out of Skagit River estuary and the availability of brackish habitat. To characterize the hydrodynamic response in this highly diked and altered environment to climate change stressors, we developed a high resolution hydrodynamic model of the system. Skagit River estuary was simulated using the finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) and included connections to Padilla Bay to the north and Saratoga Passage to the south. The model was setup by refining the Skagit-Padilla Bay sub-domain within the greater Puget Sound Georgia Basin or Salish Sea model. Salish Sea will also be affected by sea level rise and future freshwater loads over a larger scale and corresponding effects on the Skagit Basin ocean boundaries are included. The simulated salinity intrusion and gradients from future scenarios are compared with existing baseline conditions. Potential large scale changes to the seasonal net transport through the basin, north through Swinomish Channel to Padilla Bay in the winter or to the South through Saratoga Passage during the summer were examined through a series of sensitivity tests
