Development of a Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Index for Puget Sound
Presentation Abstract
The increased frequency, duration and geographic extent of toxic Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound presents new challenges of how to best allocate resources available for toxin monitoring of shellfish in order to protect human health. Monitoring plans are typically based on shellfish toxicity patterns from the previous 2-5 years of data; however, the increasing trend in Alexandrium blooms means that managers are chasing a moving target. With projected future changes in global and regional climate, the risk of toxic Alexandrium blooms is expected to increase. Through funding from NOAA’s Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications Program, we have initiated a two year study to develop a harmful algal bloom (HAB) risk index that will provide an additional decision support tool to the Washington State Department of Health (WDOH) and local health jurisdictions for allocating paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) monitoring resources in the Sound. The HAB risk index is being developed from existing modeling capabilities as well as historic observations of PSP toxin levels in shellfish by the WDOH. Future climate and streamflow projections, produced by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, will drive the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s high-resolution, 3-D Puget Sound Hydrodynamic and Transport Model (PS-HTM) and serve as a base for the modeling framework. Temperature and salinity output from this model will provide input to an Alexandrium growth rate model developed by the Puget Sound Alexandrium Harmful Algal Bloom (PS-AHAB) program. Output from the PS-HTM and Alexandrium growth models will be calculated for spatially-explicit biotoxin closure zones and correlated to historic PSP levels in shellfish. These relationships will be used to develop the HAB risk index. Changes in the index from the present-day to the future will inform allocation resource decisions needed to monitor PSP in shellfish at the local, county, and state level. Preliminary results of the HAB risk index development will be presented at the conference.
Session Title
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) and marine pathogens in a changing world
Conference Track
Climate Change and Ocean Acidification
Conference Name
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2016 : Vancouver, B.C.)
Document Type
Event
Start Date
2016 12:00 AM
End Date
2016 12:00 AM
Location
2016SSEC
Type of Presentation
Oral
Genre/Form
conference proceedings; presentations (communicative events)
Contributing Repository
Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Subjects – Topical (LCSH)
Alexandrium catenella--Washington (State)--Puget Sound; Shellfish as food--Contamination--Washington (State)--Puget Sound; Algal blooms--Toxicology; Marine toxins
Geographic Coverage
Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Puget Sound (Wash.)
Rights
This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Type
Text
Language
English
Format
application/pdf
Development of a Harmful Algal Bloom Risk Index for Puget Sound
2016SSEC
The increased frequency, duration and geographic extent of toxic Alexandrium blooms in Puget Sound presents new challenges of how to best allocate resources available for toxin monitoring of shellfish in order to protect human health. Monitoring plans are typically based on shellfish toxicity patterns from the previous 2-5 years of data; however, the increasing trend in Alexandrium blooms means that managers are chasing a moving target. With projected future changes in global and regional climate, the risk of toxic Alexandrium blooms is expected to increase. Through funding from NOAA’s Coastal and Ocean Climate Applications Program, we have initiated a two year study to develop a harmful algal bloom (HAB) risk index that will provide an additional decision support tool to the Washington State Department of Health (WDOH) and local health jurisdictions for allocating paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) monitoring resources in the Sound. The HAB risk index is being developed from existing modeling capabilities as well as historic observations of PSP toxin levels in shellfish by the WDOH. Future climate and streamflow projections, produced by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, will drive the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s high-resolution, 3-D Puget Sound Hydrodynamic and Transport Model (PS-HTM) and serve as a base for the modeling framework. Temperature and salinity output from this model will provide input to an Alexandrium growth rate model developed by the Puget Sound Alexandrium Harmful Algal Bloom (PS-AHAB) program. Output from the PS-HTM and Alexandrium growth models will be calculated for spatially-explicit biotoxin closure zones and correlated to historic PSP levels in shellfish. These relationships will be used to develop the HAB risk index. Changes in the index from the present-day to the future will inform allocation resource decisions needed to monitor PSP in shellfish at the local, county, and state level. Preliminary results of the HAB risk index development will be presented at the conference.
