Integrating global climate change stressors and human health and well-being endpoints into a Bayesian network relative risk model of the Skagit River
Presentation Abstract
Global climate change (GCC) is expected to have widespread impacts on future ecosystem services in the Salish Sea. In this research, we focused on the question of how stressors generated by GCC affect contaminant toxicity to marine species in the Skagit River, WA. Specifically we assessed how those combined effects potentially influence risks to the river’s ecosystem services that, in turn, impact human health and well-being. To answer this question, we are conducting an ecological risk assessment using the Bayesian network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM). It is a quantitative, probability-based model that calculates complex relationships between ecological variables to provide estimates of risk to valued receptors (endpoints). The Skagit River study area contains important habitats for native salmon species and bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). These species provide numerous ecological, economic, cultural, and spiritual benefits to humans. Its floodplains also provide fertile, highly productive croplands, making it an important agricultural center in the region. Pesticide use on croplands in the watershed currently pose risks to these non-target species that may increase in severity with GCC. Increasing water temperature, decreasing dissolved oxygen levels, and changes in seawater pH are of particular concern, as are changing river and stream flows, increasing storm event frequency and intensity, and sea level rise. These stressors have potential to impact human health and well-being endpoints such as human health, water quality, salmon fisheries, tribal cultural and community health indicators, recreation areas, tourism, agriculture, boating, fishing, and shellfishing. The BN-RRM will enable us to calculate the risks posed by pesticides on these select endpoints in the Skagit River watershed due to climate change. Once constructed the BN-RRM can also serve as a useful tool for resource managers and decision-makers to direct future research efforts in the watershed, as well as in other watersheds in the Salish Sea region.
Session Title
Posters: Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, & Research
Conference Track
SSE18: Posters
Conference Name
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2018 : Seattle, Wash.)
Document Type
Event
SSEC Identifier
SSE18-6
Start Date
5-4-2018 11:30 AM
End Date
5-4-2018 1:30 PM
Type of Presentation
Poster
Genre/Form
presentations (communicative events)
Contributing Repository
Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Subjects – Topical (LCSH)
Climatic changes--Skagit River (B.C. and Wash.); Ecological risk assessment--Skagit River (B.C. and Wash.)
Geographic Coverage
Skagit River (B.C. and Wash.); Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)
Rights
This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Type
Text
Language
English
Format
application/pdf
Integrating global climate change stressors and human health and well-being endpoints into a Bayesian network relative risk model of the Skagit River
Global climate change (GCC) is expected to have widespread impacts on future ecosystem services in the Salish Sea. In this research, we focused on the question of how stressors generated by GCC affect contaminant toxicity to marine species in the Skagit River, WA. Specifically we assessed how those combined effects potentially influence risks to the river’s ecosystem services that, in turn, impact human health and well-being. To answer this question, we are conducting an ecological risk assessment using the Bayesian network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM). It is a quantitative, probability-based model that calculates complex relationships between ecological variables to provide estimates of risk to valued receptors (endpoints). The Skagit River study area contains important habitats for native salmon species and bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus). These species provide numerous ecological, economic, cultural, and spiritual benefits to humans. Its floodplains also provide fertile, highly productive croplands, making it an important agricultural center in the region. Pesticide use on croplands in the watershed currently pose risks to these non-target species that may increase in severity with GCC. Increasing water temperature, decreasing dissolved oxygen levels, and changes in seawater pH are of particular concern, as are changing river and stream flows, increasing storm event frequency and intensity, and sea level rise. These stressors have potential to impact human health and well-being endpoints such as human health, water quality, salmon fisheries, tribal cultural and community health indicators, recreation areas, tourism, agriculture, boating, fishing, and shellfishing. The BN-RRM will enable us to calculate the risks posed by pesticides on these select endpoints in the Skagit River watershed due to climate change. Once constructed the BN-RRM can also serve as a useful tool for resource managers and decision-makers to direct future research efforts in the watershed, as well as in other watersheds in the Salish Sea region.
