Presentation Abstract
There is much interest in the Pacific Northwest community and water quality management agencies to better understand and predict long term changes in the Salish Sea water quality given periodic occurrences of hypoxia and evidence of coastal acidification. However, the projected interaction of riverine and estuarine systems under potential future climate-change scenarios is not well characterized in the Salish Sea area. In this study, the Salish Sea Model of circulation and water quality developed using FVCOM-ICM model was applied to provide insights on how estuarine/nearshore environments may be impacted in the future. It serves as a proof-of-concept assessment of the methods to functionally link downscaled outputs of CESM models for the Pacific Northwest (meteorology and biogeochemistry) to a marine circulation and water-quality model. We present simulated 100-year changes under the RCP8.5 scenario, including projected future increases in air temperature (≈+3.5˚), Pacific Ocean temperature (≈ +2.4°C), and river flow temperatures (≈+3.2°C), in combination with a projected sea level rise of +1.5m and future ocean chemistry changes. Our results show that strong vertical circulation cells in Salish Sea provide mitigation through mixing and continue to serve as a physical buffer, keeping water temperature cooler than over the continental shelf. Despite the mitigation effects, under RCP 8.5 scenario Salish Sea is expected to undergo several significant changes, including: temperature increases (+1.8°C), hypoxia zone expansion, and potential algal species shift (dinoflagellates: +196%; diatom: -14%). Snohomish Estuary, as an intertidal site example, is projected to experience 3 ˚C annual mean surface temperature increase and substantial seawater intrusion.
Session Title
Understanding the Salish Sea Model and its Application for Puget Sound Recovery
Conference Track
SSE15: Data and Information Management
Conference Name
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2018 : Seattle, Wash.)
Document Type
Event
SSEC Identifier
SSE15-114
Start Date
4-4-2018 2:15 PM
End Date
4-4-2018 2:30 PM
Type of Presentation
Oral
Genre/Form
presentations (communicative events)
Contributing Repository
Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Subjects – Topical (LCSH)
Sea level--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Water quality--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Intertidal zonation--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)
Geographic Coverage
Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)
Rights
This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Type
Text
Language
English
Format
application/pdf
Included in
Fresh Water Studies Commons, Marine Biology Commons, Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology Commons
Response of Salish Sea circulation and water quality to climate change and sea level rise
There is much interest in the Pacific Northwest community and water quality management agencies to better understand and predict long term changes in the Salish Sea water quality given periodic occurrences of hypoxia and evidence of coastal acidification. However, the projected interaction of riverine and estuarine systems under potential future climate-change scenarios is not well characterized in the Salish Sea area. In this study, the Salish Sea Model of circulation and water quality developed using FVCOM-ICM model was applied to provide insights on how estuarine/nearshore environments may be impacted in the future. It serves as a proof-of-concept assessment of the methods to functionally link downscaled outputs of CESM models for the Pacific Northwest (meteorology and biogeochemistry) to a marine circulation and water-quality model. We present simulated 100-year changes under the RCP8.5 scenario, including projected future increases in air temperature (≈+3.5˚), Pacific Ocean temperature (≈ +2.4°C), and river flow temperatures (≈+3.2°C), in combination with a projected sea level rise of +1.5m and future ocean chemistry changes. Our results show that strong vertical circulation cells in Salish Sea provide mitigation through mixing and continue to serve as a physical buffer, keeping water temperature cooler than over the continental shelf. Despite the mitigation effects, under RCP 8.5 scenario Salish Sea is expected to undergo several significant changes, including: temperature increases (+1.8°C), hypoxia zone expansion, and potential algal species shift (dinoflagellates: +196%; diatom: -14%). Snohomish Estuary, as an intertidal site example, is projected to experience 3 ˚C annual mean surface temperature increase and substantial seawater intrusion.
