Puget Sound coastal storm modeling system (PS-CoSMoS) to inform coastal change planning
Presentation Abstract
The Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) is a standardized, regional hydrodynamic model of the Salish Sea that predicts coastal flooding and shoreline impacts through the year 2150 for climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 at scales important for planning (~100 m alongshore). It builds from the CoSMoS model framework, which has been implemented across California and San Francisco Bay. It incorporates the principal physics associated with coupled coastal and stream flooding and can include sediment transport. Predictions of flood extent, frequency, duration, current velocities, wave heights, and associated impacts (e.g. socio-economic consequences) are provided to the public through interactive web tools. PS-CoSMoS will incorporate a new high-resolution (1-m) digital elevation model of the Salish Sea and probabilistic sea-level rise estimates formulated by the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. Initially, 40 combinations of projected sea-level rise and future storms (e.g. the 100-, 50-, 10-yr events), identified within the CMIP5 global climate model ensembles, are being propagated through coupled Delft3D-FM, SWAN, and XBeach models to evaluate expected changes in the magnitude and frequency of coastal impacts. Partner and stakeholder workshops continue to identify metrics and model outputs needed for salmon ecosystem recovery, infrastructure management, and adaptation planning that will guide additional modeling approaches. Initial results indicate that across extensive areas of Puget Sound, wave energy reaching the shoreline will increase 5-25% and the frequency of today’s 100-yr extreme coastal storm flood and high water events will recur as
Session Title
Integrated Coastal Climate Change Modeling for Salish Sea Planning: Part I
Conference Track
SSE5: Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Research
Conference Name
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2018 : Seattle, Wash.)
Document Type
Event
SSEC Identifier
SSE5-212
Start Date
6-4-2018 9:15 AM
End Date
6-4-2018 9:30 AM
Type of Presentation
Oral
Genre/Form
conference proceedings; presentations (communicative events)
Contributing Repository
Digital content made available by University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Subjects – Topical (LCSH)
Storm surges--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Flood control--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.); Coastal zone management--Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)
Geographic Coverage
Salish Sea (B.C. and Wash.)
Rights
This resource is displayed for educational purposes only and may be subject to U.S. and international copyright laws. For more information about rights or obtaining copies of this resource, please contact University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9103, USA (360-650-7534; heritage.resources@wwu.edu) and refer to the collection name and identifier. Any materials cited must be attributed to the Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference Records, University Archives, Heritage Resources, Western Libraries, Western Washington University.
Type
Text
Language
English
Format
application/pdf
Puget Sound coastal storm modeling system (PS-CoSMoS) to inform coastal change planning
The Puget Sound Coastal Storm Modeling System (PS-CoSMoS) is a standardized, regional hydrodynamic model of the Salish Sea that predicts coastal flooding and shoreline impacts through the year 2150 for climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 at scales important for planning (~100 m alongshore). It builds from the CoSMoS model framework, which has been implemented across California and San Francisco Bay. It incorporates the principal physics associated with coupled coastal and stream flooding and can include sediment transport. Predictions of flood extent, frequency, duration, current velocities, wave heights, and associated impacts (e.g. socio-economic consequences) are provided to the public through interactive web tools. PS-CoSMoS will incorporate a new high-resolution (1-m) digital elevation model of the Salish Sea and probabilistic sea-level rise estimates formulated by the Washington Coastal Resilience Project. Initially, 40 combinations of projected sea-level rise and future storms (e.g. the 100-, 50-, 10-yr events), identified within the CMIP5 global climate model ensembles, are being propagated through coupled Delft3D-FM, SWAN, and XBeach models to evaluate expected changes in the magnitude and frequency of coastal impacts. Partner and stakeholder workshops continue to identify metrics and model outputs needed for salmon ecosystem recovery, infrastructure management, and adaptation planning that will guide additional modeling approaches. Initial results indicate that across extensive areas of Puget Sound, wave energy reaching the shoreline will increase 5-25% and the frequency of today’s 100-yr extreme coastal storm flood and high water events will recur as
