Streaming Media
Presentation Abstract
Management of coastal systems should be guided by social, cultural, economic, and ecological objectives, but integrative decision support tools appropriate for complex coastal systems remain underutilized. We employed one such tool – qualitative network modeling (QNM) – to evaluate the multi-benefit outcomes of proposed recovery actions for Puget Sound, Washington, USA. The basis for our analysis was a conceptual model developed with regional scientists and stakeholders that describes how human stressors and ecosystem components are connected (via positive and negative links) to recovery objectives across the terrestrial-freshwater-estuarine gradient of a generalized Puget Sound watershed. Through a combination of alternative network topologies and network perturbations, we simulated proposed recovery actions related to stormwater runoff and regional development pattern under varying degrees of coordination within the watershed and tracked reverberations through the networks. The differing responses of ecosystem stressors and recovery objectives highlighted tradeoffs and synergies associated with the outcomes of different management actions. For instance, the response of herring to simulated recovery actions was either unclear or in opposition to the response of Chinook salmon in the QNM, both of which are culturally and ecologically important species. In addition, we identified key uncertainties in the dynamics of the Puget Sound social-ecological system that require further investigation. For instance, future growth pattern (i.e., the amount of urban redevelopment to accommodate increased population density compared to new development via the conversion of rural land) was a key determinant of the response strength and direction of many recovery objectives in the QNM. Coordination between urban and rural jurisdictions in a watershed resulted in more favorable outcomes when moderate levels of intervention were applied in tandem rather than separately. This study demonstrates the value of integrative analyses, like QNM, that leverage existing information to guide coastal management decisions and influence future research priorities.
Session Title
Data Science 1
Conference Track
SSE1: Science for the Future
Conference Name
Salish Sea Ecosystem Conference (2022 : Online)
Document Type
Event
SSEC Identifier
SSE-traditionals-168
Start Date
26-4-2022 1:30 PM
End Date
26-4-2022 3:00 PM
Rights
Copying of this document in whole or in part is allowable only for scholarly purposes. It is understood, however, that any copying or publication of this document for commercial purposes, or for financial gain, shall not be allowed without the author's written permission.
Type
Text
Language
English
Qualitative network models facilitate multi-benefit comparison of management interventions for the Puget Sound social-ecological system
Management of coastal systems should be guided by social, cultural, economic, and ecological objectives, but integrative decision support tools appropriate for complex coastal systems remain underutilized. We employed one such tool – qualitative network modeling (QNM) – to evaluate the multi-benefit outcomes of proposed recovery actions for Puget Sound, Washington, USA. The basis for our analysis was a conceptual model developed with regional scientists and stakeholders that describes how human stressors and ecosystem components are connected (via positive and negative links) to recovery objectives across the terrestrial-freshwater-estuarine gradient of a generalized Puget Sound watershed. Through a combination of alternative network topologies and network perturbations, we simulated proposed recovery actions related to stormwater runoff and regional development pattern under varying degrees of coordination within the watershed and tracked reverberations through the networks. The differing responses of ecosystem stressors and recovery objectives highlighted tradeoffs and synergies associated with the outcomes of different management actions. For instance, the response of herring to simulated recovery actions was either unclear or in opposition to the response of Chinook salmon in the QNM, both of which are culturally and ecologically important species. In addition, we identified key uncertainties in the dynamics of the Puget Sound social-ecological system that require further investigation. For instance, future growth pattern (i.e., the amount of urban redevelopment to accommodate increased population density compared to new development via the conversion of rural land) was a key determinant of the response strength and direction of many recovery objectives in the QNM. Coordination between urban and rural jurisdictions in a watershed resulted in more favorable outcomes when moderate levels of intervention were applied in tandem rather than separately. This study demonstrates the value of integrative analyses, like QNM, that leverage existing information to guide coastal management decisions and influence future research priorities.
