The vast majority of theses in this collection are open access and freely available. There are a small number of theses that have access restricted to the WWU campus. For off-campus access to a thesis labeled "Campus Only Access," please log in here with your WWU universal ID, or talk to your librarian about requesting the restricted thesis through interlibrary loan.
Date Permissions Signed
5-20-2016
Date of Award
Spring 2016
Document Type
Masters Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
Department
Environmental Sciences
First Advisor
Landis, Wayne G.
Second Advisor
Bunn, Andrew Godard
Third Advisor
Bodensteiner, Leo R., 1957-
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is causing the earth to warm, and the consequences of warming will be on a continuum for species from extinction to thriving and expanding to larger ranges. There will be winners with climate change and there will be losers, and identifying species that management would benefit early makes management more effective. Environmental factors and contaminants complicate species responses to climate change. Sites with legacy contaminants, like mercury, that stay in the environment for extended periods will need to be managed for the mixed effects of climate change, environmental stressors and contaminants. In this study I use an ensemble of 10 GCMs downscaled to a 0.125-degree scale to assess the likely climate for 2071-2100. I integrate these projections into a Bayesian network relative risk model for the mercury contaminated South River in Virginia, USA. All climate change models predict increased temperatures across the South River. From my ensemble of downscaled climate projections for the South River, I predict that the Carolina wren, smallmouth bass and white sucker will all have reduced risk with warmer temperatures. This risk assessment provides early information on likely future conditions for long-term management of the South River. It also indicates future research that would increase understanding of the dynamics of contaminant uptake and temperature.
Type
Text
DOI
https://doi.org/10.25710/zbx4-0034
Publisher
Western Washington University
OCLC Number
950470334
Subject – LCSH
Ecosystem management--Virginia--South River (Augusta County and Rockingham County); Ecosystem management--Shenandoah River (Va. and W. Va.); Environmental risk assessment--Virginia--South River (Augusta County and Rockingham County); Environmental risk assessment--Shenandoah River (Va. and W. Va.); Climatic changes--Virginia--South River (Augusta County and Rockingham County); Climatic changes--Shenandoah River (Va. and W. Va.); Mercury--Bioaccumulation--Virginia--South River (Augusta County and Rockingham County); Mercury--Bioaccumulation--Shenandoah River (Va. and W. Va.); Bayesian statistical decision theory
Geographic Coverage
South River (Augusta County and Rockingham County, Va.); Shenandoah River (Va. and W. Va.)
Format
application/pdf
Genre/Form
masters theses
Language
English
Rights
Copying of this document in whole or in part is allowable only for scholarly purposes. It is understood, however, that any copying or publication of this thesis for commercial purposes, or for financial gain, shall not be allowed without the author's written permission.
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.
Recommended Citation
Gaasland-Tatro, Lara, "A Dynamic Bayesian Approach for Integrating Climate Change into a Multi-Stressor Ecological Risk Assessment for the Mercury Contaminated South River and Upper Shenandoah River" (2016). WWU Graduate School Collection. 504.
https://cedar.wwu.edu/wwuet/504